Rising Indian Ocean temperatures will bring
escalating
drought
A new study on climate change has warned
of escalating drought in southern Africa, directly linked to the warming of the
Indian Ocean.
According to the US-based National Centre for Atmospheric Research, since
1950 the Indian Ocean has warmed more than one degree Celsius; "well beyond
the range expected from natural processes", but consistent with projected
increases in greenhouse gas emissions.
Previous computer simulation models had omitted Indian Ocean warming and, as
a result, it was difficult to assess the magnitude of the drying that had
actually occurred in the southern African region.
"When the [research] models did include Indian Ocean warming, southern
Africa consistently dried out. The models also project that by 2049, monsoons
across southern Africa could be 10-20 percent drier than the 1950-1999
average," the researchers noted.
The world's most developed countries are the leading producers of greenhouse
gases - the United States pumps out around 25 percent of the world's total
output, while the G8 nations together are responsible for about half the
quantity. By comparison, the entire African continent produces roughly five
percent.
"Any significant climatic change in Africa, whether it be drought
conditions or floods, has serious ramifications mainly because of the
vulnerability of populations," Bruce Howitt, professor of climatology at
the University of Cape Town, told IRIN.
"It must be said, however, that the jury is still out on whether
southern Africa will see recurrent droughts in coming years, because there are
various ongoing natural processes which may impact on future weather
patterns," he added.
Since 2001 consecutive dry spells in southern Africa have led to serious food
shortages. The drought of 2002/03 resulted in a food deficit of 3.3 million mt,
with an estimated 14.4 million people in need of assistance.
Last year a report by the University of Michigan warned that the region
should prepare itself for recurring drought, likely to strike at least twice
every decade.
Although that study noted the benefits of expanding regional early warning
systems, which would allow governments and aid agencies to respond timeously to
those in need, there were concerns that not enough was being done to improve
food production, distribution and marketing. -IRIN
More information:
[This Item may not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations.
Copyright (©) UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs 2005]
www.irinnews.org
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